Is Anwar Still Bluffing?

Article from Malaysiakini :

Written by : Ong Kian Ming & Yun Yang | Sep 17, 08 1:04pm

September 16 has come and gone and Barisan Nasional is still in power. Has Pakatan Rakyat leader Anwar Ibrahim failed to keep his promise? Has his credibility been affected? Is this an indication that he will not be able to form the next government in the near future?

Perhaps not.

We had indicated in previous podcasts that we did not think Anwar could form the next government by Sept 16. The reasons were numerous – that no BN party or MPs besides Sapp came out in support or rather in defiance of the ruling coalition; that he could not get Sarawak MPs while Chief Minister Taib Mahmud is still in power: that he could not get a enough Malay or Muslim MP crossovers to make his coalition a Malay/Muslim majority coalition.

From outside looking in, Anwar's claim that he has had over 31 MPs in the bag has always been a matter of strategy on his part, a way to create uncertainty among the BN as well as to use it as a smokescreen to 'persuade' doubtful BN parliamentarians and parties to join his cause.

It has been a strategy that has worked well thus far as Anwar has managed to capitalise on the own goals scored by BN to possibly convince some MPs who may have been sitting on the fence. Furthermore, it was a bluff which could not be 'called' by Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, at least not until now.

Kian Ming expected him to announce the names of at least some BN crossovers, perhaps as many as 10 MPs, as an initial step to destabilise BN and perhaps use this an another hinge in the strategy to attract more BN crossovers to his side. Instead Anwar has made a high stakes gamble by declaring that he has the numbers to form the next government.

He could have made excuses to say that circumstances beyond his control such as the sodomy charges against him and the recent ISA arrests have prevented him from getting the sufficient numbers. But he has instead chosen the option of seeking to form the next government, saying he is prepared to show his list of crossovers to Abdullah.

By doing so, Anwar's has hemmed himself in. Abdullah could call his bluff, agree to meet him and demand to see the list. If he doesn't indeed have over 31 MPs as he claims, it's game over.

True to form, Abdullah chose instead of asking Anwar to do what he has not been willing to do in the first place, which is to reveal the names publicly. And the grounds for that is a convincing one. He doesn't want the crossover MPs to be harassed or worse still, arrested under the ISA.

Anwar faces a fundamental problem in the process of naming these 31 names. We suspect that many of these MPs may be willing to jump over to Anwar's side only if he can form the next government. This is not a given since 31 crossover MPs, together with Pakatan's 81 (assuming that Ibrahim Ali will maintain his independence) would give Pakatan a total of 112 MPs, a bare majority of just one.

Even then, if a majority of the crossovers MPs are non-Muslim, the King might not assent to Anwar's request to form the next government, especially with a bare majority of one. His claim of having at least 31 MPs may be a 'semi-bluff' in this sense.

Window of opportunity closing fast

Hence, Anwar faces a chicken-and-egg quandary. He cannot form the next government without naming the 31 MPs. But the 31 MPs won't allow themselves to be named without Anwar being able to form the next government. This is probably one of the main reasons why Anwar has not named any names. Anyone named without Anwar first forming the government would have plausible deniability.

However, by creating this self-imposed deadline, Anwar's window of opportunity has narrowed considerably. He has two or three weeks to make his move before he loses credibility.

Perhaps Anwar felt the potential BN crossovers might not have been willing to wait around forever for him to make his move. Perhaps he thought that his credibility would have been damaged if he did not make some move on Sept 16 as promised. Perhaps he felt he had to force the hands of the BN MPs whom he might have 'convinced' to switch over.

More importantly, Anwar's ability to convince BN parliamentarians to cross over might be significantly reduced if Umno decides to unite behind Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak and remove Abdullah from office. Given a new leader and perhaps a new lease of life, some of these MPs might decide to given Najib a chance. This possibility is looking more and more likely with each passing day.

Both of us have learnt not to underestimate Anwar. He said he could help Pakatan win over Penang, Perak and Selangor. And he did it. He said he could help deny BN the two-thirds majority. And he did it. Last month, he was not even an MP. Now, he looks like a prime-minister in waiting.

But whatever Anwar hopes to do, he needs to do it fast. Time is not on his side. Something will happen in the coming weeks.